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FERTILITY RATES BY LEVEL OF EDUCATION, ECONOMIC HISTORY CONSIDERATIONS

A 1999 survey published in the INE based on methodology, the following results:

In the following study with sampling 1999, gives the relative percentage of the presence of different levels of population studies. Data were used for the English average for ages between 25 and 34. In this study, the population is grouped into 5 levels:

1. Less than primary education: population illiterate and literate but not completed at least 5 years of schooling.
2. Primary: Population that has completed at least 5 years of schooling, usually started at 5 or 6 years and finished at 11 or 12 years, completing a higher level.
3. Compulsory Secondary Education: Graduated secondary school graduate, high school, elementary school leaving certificate.
4. post-compulsory secondary education: Bachelor , technical degree (middle-level vocational training), technical assistant (FPI) and equivalent qualifications and similar.
5. Higher Education: Doctor , graduate, college graduate, a senior technician (higher-level vocational training) technician (FPII) and equivalent qualifications or equivalent.

pooling the data from the INE survey according to the classification and weighting the number of births for each level of education the birth rate is obtained for each level.

from the second study mentioned can be derived following chart shows the proportion of the different levels of education between 25 and 34 years for the whole of Spain.

The English population in 1999 can be taken as 40 million. You can be the evolution of these percentages over time according to a following simplifying assumptions to represent a possible scenario:

1. The data presented are approximations to reality
2. Each level breeds among its own level Progenitors
3. a level of education, individuals procreate at the same level of studies.
4. A generation is the life expectancy at 80 years start.
5. Life expectancy depends on the percentage of grade 4 and 5. Such that Lifespan = 35 + (percentage grades 4 and 5) * 0.8181

Historically it is not true the 3 rd degree, illiterate children are no longer so. But they have ceased to be because access to education became free and release the children of productive work, so that the children were more easily to study the parents. To date more provision for the education and general access to 3 rd grades of education can be difficult, if in addition to this is joined on stage overhang of domestic consumption clearly access is not to improve and If worse. Therefore the children of parents from these 3 primary grades will have greater opportunities for advancement than their parents. Something different happens to access to the last 2 degrees of education, where this is not free and also the potential student can decide to enter the labor market decline. In these cases if it would be possible to improve facilities for children with on parents, but it seems that in the current context of the facts of these facilities is likely to occur (increase in prices, over-qualified ...). Therefore be considered (I admit, I have an accent) acceptable to the 2 nd stage hypothesis means better than expected.

According to the above, in the next generation the population for each grade is given by the product of the population for that grade by the fertility rate, you can get the following table:

In the next graph you can see the evolution of the population and different sectors:

The following
news is relevant to this aspect, which highlights "the illiterate population national (excluding immigration) also increased in the period, about 12% spent of 691,700 at the beginning of 2005 to 777,800 in the last quarter of 2008. " According to the scenario envisaged the increase of illiteracy in that period would have been only 7%. CONSIDERATIONS




The trend depends on the current political and economic structure, but this structure will remain unchanged as the degree education of the population continue to drift. The first will be a continuous degradation of the welfare (subsidies, public health ...), to rebalance levels of fertility and mortality rates in the lower grades. Assuming the continuation of the capitalist market, in this environment is possible that even fertility in grades 4 and 5 has not rebounded since the reasons for low fertility among these classes can not be resolved, the incorporation of women into the labor market The role of men in parenting, and children do not need in old age. While the lower grades to saturate multiply the possibilities of context. On this basis it seems likely that education continued to deteriorate, until the economic and social structures has regressed to the point that the problems associated with low fertility in grades 4 and 5 have been mitigated, so that these degrees can be to revisit an escalation in its proportions relative to other groups.